Global Markets on August 23: Gold Nears $4,650 as Markets Position Cautiously Ahead of Jackson Hole

Gold Nears $4,650 as Safe-Haven Sentiment and Dollar Weakness Converge During European and US trading on August 22, spot gold reached an intraday high of $4,648.30 per ounce, a step away from the $4,650 mark, and settled at $4,639.50 in New York, up roughly 5.9% for the week — its best weekly performance since May 2026. COMEX December gold futures closed at $4,692.10 per ounce, and silver rallied in tandem, with spot silver gaining 7.2% on the week. Three forces drive the precious-metals rally: a dollar index that has weakened for a third straight week below 98.5; renewed concern over US fiscal sustainability after the Treasury expanded its long-bond buyback program; and stronger physical allocation demand from central banks and institutions amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Goldman Sachs this week raised its three-month gold target to $4,750, arguing that the fiscal-dominance narrative remains the medium-term backbone. Dollar Extends Decline, Non-US Currencies Broadly Rebound The dollar index closed the week at 98.42, down nearly 2.4% from the start of the month and falling for a third consecutive week. A weaker dollar lowers the cost for non-US investors to hold gold and commodities, and it has pushed the euro, yen and yuan higher against the greenback. Notably, although the July FOMC minutes showed internal disagreement on inflation stickiness, markets have almost fully priced in a September rate hold and have trimmed expectations for the number of cuts this year. The divergence between this "higher for longer" rate outlook and the softening dollar is precisely why gold strengthens while long-end Treasury yields stay elevated. Traders widely agree that the real directional choice awaits the Jackson Hole global central-bank symposium opening August 28 — the first major policy speech by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. US Equities Diverge as Funds Rotate from Lofty Tech to Financials and Energy In contrast to gold's strength, US stocks showed clear structural divergence this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.21% on Friday to 53,822, up 0.34% on the week; the S&P 500 gained 0.51% to 7,713 but still fell 0.86% weekly; the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.18% to 26,131, logging a second consecutive weekly loss. At the sector level, banks, energy and mining outperformed — JPMorgan rose 3.4% on the week and ExxonMobil gained 4.1% on the oil rebound — while crowded high-valuation AI compute and semiconductor names saw profit-taking, with Nvidia down 2.7% weekly. The rotation from expensive growth into cheap cyclical and financial shares reflects a subtle shift in risk appetite ahead of an event-dense period. Crude Posts First Weekly Gain in Three Weeks as Rebalancing Signals Emerge International oil prices staged their first weekly gain in three weeks. WTI October crude settled at $69.85 a barrel, up 3.8% on the week, while Brent closed at $73.40, up 3.3%. Support came from a fourth straight weekly draw in US commercial crude inventories, OPEC+ maintaining a measured pace of increases, and resilient end-of-summer travel demand in the Northern Hemisphere. Analysts caution, however, that a stronger dollar after Jackson Hole or weaker global manufacturing data could cap upside. The energy-sector rebound and stabilizing crude corroborate each other as one of the few visible conviction themes this week. Next Week's Focus: Jackson Hole, PCE and Nvidia Earnings Form a Triple Window Looking ahead, markets enter an event-dense stretch. First is the Jackson Hole symposium opening August 28, where Chair Warsh's tone will directly shape the dollar and Treasuries. Second is the July core PCE price index due August 27 — the Fed's preferred underlying-inflation gauge — where a benign print would cement the hold narrative and an upside surprise could reignite hike fears. Third is Nvidia's earnings after the August 27 close, whose data-center guidance will steer AI-chain sentiment. The US Q2 GDP revision and the annual benchmark payrolls revision will also follow. Most institutions believe that before these variables resolve, gold's safe-haven premium and the dollar's weak trend are hard to reverse quickly, and markets will position with caution.