UBS raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,100 but warned that short-term volatility could rise. Goldman Sachs maintained its year-end gold forecast of $4,900 per ounce, citing significant up
International Markets
Gold reaches a three-month high. On August 21, spot gold rose 1.98% to $4,604.99 per ounce, reclaiming the $4,600 level for the first time in three months and gaining 5.22% for the week. COMEX gold futures climbed 1.97% to $4,661.60 per ounce, up 5.05% weekly. Spot silver rose 1.37% to $69.02 per ounce, advancing 6.66% for the week. A weaker dollar, the U.S. Treasury’s expanded long-bond buybacks, and concerns over America’s fiscal outlook drove the rally.
U.S. stocks rose on Friday but fell for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.98% to 53,277.01, the S&P 500 rose 0.43% to 7,674.37, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.43% to 26,180.46. For the week, however, the S&P 500 lost 1.43%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.05% after three straight weekly gains, and the Dow fell 0.85% for a second consecutive weekly decline. Materials and healthcare led, while utilities and energy lagged. Tesla surged 5.14%, and crypto-related stocks such as Robinhood and Coinbase jumped as bitcoin rallied.
Treasury yields remain elevated. The 30-year Treasury yield stood at 5.271%, near its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield was 4.7339%. The Treasury’s plan to expand long-bond buybacks was criticized as “stealth QE.” Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned that if the 30-year yield cannot be pulled below 5%, the dollar could face a sharp drop.
Fed Chair Warsh to debut at Jackson Hole. On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, his first major policy appearance since taking office. The market will look for signals on the Fed’s rate path. Next week also brings the July core PCE inflation report, the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, and the preliminary annual benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls.
Domestic Markets
A-shares rebound on lower volume. On August 21, the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.04% to 3,905.20, the Shenzhen Component rose 0.87% to 14,094.17, and the ChiNext Index led with a 1.43% gain to 3,545.58. Total turnover was 1.89 trillion yuan, down about 200 billion yuan from the previous session. Precious metals, AI hardware, lithium mining, and liquid-cooling concepts were strong, while the agricultural sector retreated and high-flying thematic stocks corrected.
Hong Kong stocks rose. The Hang Seng Index gained 1.21% to 26,009.46, returning above the 26,000 level. Chip and CPO sectors saw heavy net inflows, with main funds adding 16.25 billion yuan to semiconductors and 15.57 billion yuan to CPO stocks.
Lithium carbonate futures climb. The main lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose more than 3% to 157,000 yuan per ton, up more than 14% from the August 3 low. Domestic battery production schedules rose 7% to 9% month on month in August, with total market output exceeding 300 GWh. Energy-storage cell output topped 120 GWh, driven by overseas large-scale storage orders.
Industry Developments
Innolight reports 241.7% net profit surge. In the first half of 2026, Innolight posted revenue of 41.78 billion yuan, up 182.49% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.65 billion yuan, up 241.70%. The company’s 1.6T silicon-photonics modules have entered volume shipment, and it plans a cash dividend of 12 yuan per 10 shares. Analysts view the results as validation of the AI-capital-expenditure boom.
YMTC files for STAR Market IPO. Yangtze Memory Technologies has submitted its application for a STAR Market listing, planning to issue no fewer than 1.98 billion and no more than 2.43 billion shares to raise 33 billion yuan for production upgrades and R&D. Benefiting from rising NAND flash prices, YMTC reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of 47.04 billion yuan and net profit of 33.38 billion yuan, with market share rising to third globally.
Samsung announces record shareholder returns. Samsung Electronics unveiled a 2026 shareholder-return program of 90 trillion to 110 trillion won, the largest in South Korean corporate history. The plan includes about 30 trillion won in cash dividends and 15 trillion won in share buybacks. SK Hynix had already announced a large-scale buyback program, signaling a broader wave of returns in the memory sector.
Solid-state batteries target AIDC storage. Solid-state battery leaders such as WeLion New Energy have announced AIDC storage deployments. Global AIDC storage demand is expected to reach 119 GWh in 2026. Solid-state batteries’ intrinsic safety, high energy density, and long cycle life make them well suited to AI data centers.
Policy News
August LPR unchanged for 15th month. The PBOC announced that the one-year LPR remains at 3.0% and the five-year-and-above LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged from July. A stable policy rate and historically low bank net interest margins are the main reasons for the pause.
Shanghai rolls out “Eight Measures” for property. Effective August 21, Shanghai unified the minimum down-payment ratio for first-home mortgages at 15% and lowered the second-home down-payment ratio for Outer Ring purchases from 20% to 15%. Households buying new homes outside the Outer Ring and selling existing homes inside the Outer Ring can receive a maximum stacked subsidy of 80,000 yuan.
Ministry of Finance expands consumption subsidies. The ministry said it will roll out pragmatic incremental policies in the second half of the year, including adding new working-capital loans to the small-business interest-subsidy program and bringing car and renovation credit-card installment spending into the subsidy scope. The number of participating subsidy agencies will rise from about 100 to about 400.
Analyst Views
UBS raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,100 but warned that short-term volatility could rise. Goldman Sachs maintained its year-end gold forecast of $4,900 per ounce, citing significant upside risk. Institutions generally advise caution ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting and NVIDIA’s earnings, recommending investors focus on companies with solid first-half results and exposure to AI hardware and resources.
Disclaimers
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